A stark lesson for ageing Arab autocrats

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As a small state of 10m people, Tunisia rarely tops lists of diplomatic concerns. Even so, given the increasingly violent protests taking place since December, it was surprising that America waited 22 days before criticising the police response, in which at least 23 people have died. The spread of protests to Algeria, where young people took to the streets earlier this month, should now prompt much more serious reflection.

While there is no clear and direct link between the two sets of protests, the economic triggers – youth unemployment and the rising cost of basic goods – are similar. Now the question is whether the unrest can be contained, or whether it will go on to unsettle the ruling regimes, and indeed those that govern North Africa, and other populous states in the Arab world.

Algeria has a sobering historical precedent for today’s demonstrators. Riots over shortages in 1988 prompted an ill-fated experiment in competitive elections. Having cancelled the first round of voting, the military forced the president to resign and imposed emergency laws that still hold today. The protests took Algeria no closer to a full-fledged democracy free of military interference.

A generation on, and the region’s youthful population still feel the effects of Algeria’s “décennie noire” (dark decade). Moves towards democracy elsewhere in the region have been replaced, at best, by the semblance of accountable governance with little political substance. North Africa’s post 9/11 emphasis on combating al-Qaeda has also downplayed political experiments, in exchange for assurances from local leaders of security in Europe’s back yard.

For the past decade this approach has created a mostly peaceful and relatively prosperous region – even if not one with human rights concerns. Yet it is with economic growth that the problem now lies. The west, and in particular the European Union’s various Mediterranean policies, have pushed to increase the region’s economic, rather than political, opportunities – in the hope that growth would absorb the growing unemployed, and dampen their enthusiasm for renewed forms of Islamist activism.

This approach had some success, with overt terrorist threats receding. But growth simply has not come fast enough to keep a lid on economic resentment. Now the danger is where those with grievances will turn next. The al-Qaeda variant of Islamist radicalism still fails to attract the vast majority of North Africa’s malcontents, but this has not stemmed the appeal of other Islamist alternatives.

It is of course possible that some good may come of the current protests. Iran’s 2009 protests excited international attention, because they showed democratic instincts in a troubled part of the Middle East. Yet so far no such sympathy has been extended to the protesting North Africans – who are too often painted in the west as potential flag-bearers for terror, or unwanted migrants.

As the violence threatens to spread, a new strategy from the US and Europe is badly needed. Any replacement for the already-flagging post-9/11 approach must balance concerns with terrorism with a stronger emphasis on sharing the fruits of economic growth, and democratic accountability. The west should be wary of siding with North Africa’s aging leaders against the reasonable aspirations of their peoples.

Those leaders could still show the same tenacity as their Iranian counterparts – while buying time with economic palliatives. Unlike the Iranians, however, they lack a convincing national or ideological narrative to justify sustained repression. The leaders of Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt are also unlikely to survive to see the next decade – making them poor long-term allies.

In any case, stifling freedoms would provide no guarantee of regional peace, especially given restive populations increasingly able to circumvent online controls and media clampdowns to learn the truth about their leaders. Because of this the jobless of North Africa today observe with new clarity that wealth and opportunity with their respective states have been unfairly shared, while elite corruption remains rife. They are drawing their own conclusions about when enough is enough. North Africa’s leaders would do well to change their ways, before their people make their rules untenable.


(2011-1-19/ft.com)