US Republican wins could boost SKorean trade deal

otential big Republican wins in congressional elections next week could improve President Barack Obama's chance of passing a stalled South Korean trade deal. His handling of a delicate, often tense, relationship with China, however, could be a focus of Republican attacks.

Those are among the most noticeable ways Obama's Asia policy is likely to be affected by Tuesday's congressional elections, when Republicans are expected to win power in the U.S. House of Representatives and have a smaller shot at taking over the Senate as well.

A newly powerful Republican Party also probably would oppose Obama's position on human rights abuses in Asia and attempts to engage North Korea during a nuclear standoff.

While the overwhelming focus of this year's election campaign has been on the domestic U.S. economy, China has been one of the few international issues that have inspired lawmakers.

China's economic policies touch on a worry of many Americans: job losses. U.S. lawmakers say that China's undervalued currency gives Beijing a trade boost by making Chinese goods cheaper in the United States and U.S. products more expensive in China.

Obama, following Bush's example, so far has been reluctant to confront China too strongly on currency as he looks for Chinese support on a host of crucial global initiatives. Both Republicans and Democrats share frustration over Beijing's policies, and Republicans might step up attacks on Obama's China policy if the U.S. economy remains weak.

More Republicans in office could help him, though, on trade deals.

Many of Obama's Democrats are suspicious of the South Korean accord to slash trade barriers on industrial goods and services, which has languished since it was signed in 2007 by George W. Bush's Republican administration. They want Seoul to do more to deal with its surplus in auto trade and allow more access to American beef.

Obama now backs the deal as a way to improve American exports and strengthen ties with an important U.S. ally and has directed his trade officials to settle differences before the Group of 20 economic summit Nov. 11-12 in Seoul.

Republican wins will not guarantee the deal's passage. Both sides would have to put aside residual anger from the elections and their worries about the American public's wariness of foreign trade deals. But success next week by Republicans, who are generally more supportive of trade efforts, could provide an opening for Obama to push through a deal many Democrats do not like.

Republicans will have limited influence on foreign policy, but they still could apply pressure by holding hearings and using their control over spending.

They probably will urge Obama to support U.S friends in Asia more strongly as they deal with territorial disputes against an assertive, fast-growing Chinese military. They will chastise what they see as Obama's reluctance to be more outspoken on claims of human rights abuse in China, Myanmar and North Korea.

A stronger Republican Party in Congress might also push for Obama to put North Korea back on a U.S. terrorism blacklist. The Bush administration agreed to remove it in 2008 in what proved to be a failed attempt to get a nuclear disarmament deal.

Many Republicans, and some Democrats, say that was a mistake. They cite allegations that the North torpedoed a South Korean warship, tried to assassinate a senior North Korean defector in Seoul and sells missiles to anti-Israel groups the United States considers agents of terror.

Returning to the terror list would infuriate Kim Jong Il's government, which denies a role in the sinking, and would complicate efforts to restart stalled nuclear disarmament talks. For years, North Korea has said it did not belong on the terror list.

Taiwan could benefit from Republican wins. Many Republicans in the House have been strong supporters of the self-ruled island that China claims as its own territory, and there could be more demands that the Obama administration provide Taiwan with new U.S. jets to help Taiwan deal with a military imbalance that strongly favors China.

Republicans are not expected to take power in the Senate. But if they do, the fiercest U.S. congressional critic of the military government in Myanmar probably would be elevated in power.

Mitch McConnell, the top Republican in the Senate, was for many years leader of the panel responsible for financing international programs. With that power, he was credited with putting and keeping Myanmar high on the agendas of the State Department and White House during times when it received little public attention.


(2010-10-31/eTaiwan News)